Pacific Surfliner Ridership Update

At the upcoming 7/9/2015 Technical Advisory Committee meeting, LOSSAN is providing an update on the Pacific Surfliner's ridership and for those of us with an interest in some of the nuts and bolts of the data, it's like Christmas in July. Unfortunately it doesn't have all the information one might want; the station-pair information is vague rather than specific as LOSSAN used to receive a decade ago and as the Capitol Corridor is currently releasing, but it does continue great information nonetheless; in particular, the average monthly ridership per train, broken down into coach and business, is quite possibly unprecedented.

It's a bit unfortunate that the ridership doesn't show the values, but luckily it's possible to extract it. I've also included a daily ridership figure in order to better show off 761/1761 and 790/1790 which are the only two frequencies which receive separate numbers for running on weekdays and weekends.  I'm a bit mystified, honestly, by that, since there are other trains which have separate weekend timings, but don't receive a different number for it. For the purpose of this, I've assumed an average month has 30 days, 8 of which are weekends.

Train	Total ridership	Business class	Coach	Business %	Daily ridership
562	6,474	433	6,041	6.7%	216
564	5,491	642	4,849	11.7%	183
565	6,439	749	5,690	11.6%	215
566	5,807	784	5,023	13.5%	194
567	7,177	749	6,428	10.4%	239
572	6,088	853	5,235	14.0%	203
573	6,826	783	6,043	11.5%	228
579	5,666	819	4,847	14.5%	189
580	9,423	1,346	8,077	14.3%	314
582	10,268	1,065	9,202	10.4%	342
583	6,896	1,065	5,831	15.4%	230
591	8,547	995	7,552	11.6%	285
595	4,718	328	4,390	6.9%	157
761	3,383	256	3,128	7.6%	154
763	14,342	1,908	12,434	13.3%	478
768	12,797	1,768	11,029	13.8%	427
769	12,761	2,049	10,713	16.1%	425
774	14,483	2,505	11,977	17.3%	483
777	13,218	2,154	11,064	16.3%	441
784	19,751	2,189	17,562	11.1%	658
785	16,274	2,152	14,121	13.2%	542
790	9,987	1,276	8,711	12.8%	454
796	8,090	714	7,376	8.8%	270
1761	1,452	152	1,300	10.5%	181
1790	4,894	609	4,285	12.4%	612
761/1761	4,835	408	4,427	8.4%	161
790/1790	14,880	1,885	12,996	12.7%	496

I've also redone the chart to join the weekday and weekend trains, making it quite apparent that the 790/1790 pair performs significantly better than the original chart makes it appear.

From the passenger miles per train, we can also determine how far the typical journey is per train and how productive each train is in terms of passenger miles per train mile.

And, of course, here's the information for that in spreadsheet form:

Train	Total ridership	Passenger miles (000s)	Average trip length	Passenger miles/train mile
562	6,474	363.1	56.1	95
564	5,491	386.2	70.3	101
565	6,439	461.2	71.6	120
566	5,807	438.1	75.4	114
567	7,177	458.3	63.9	119
572	6,088	472.8	77.7	123
573	6,826	481.4	70.5	125
579	5,666	424.9	75.0	111
580	9,423	694.9	73.7	181
582	10,268	657.4	64.0	171
583	6,896	539.1	78.2	140
591	8,547	720.9	84.3	188
595	4,718	317.0	67.2	83
761	3,383	293.9	86.9	60
763	14,342	1,176.7	82.0	163
768	12,797	1,119.0	87.4	155
769	12,761	1,292.1	101.3	179
774	14,483	1,759.5	121.5	168
777	13,218	1,574.9	119.1	150
784	19,751	1,603.7	81.2	222
785	16,274	1,537.2	94.5	213
790	9,987	1,009.1	101.0	131
796	8,090	665.9	82.3	92
1761	1,452	152.5	105.1	86
1790	4,894	536.2	109.6	192
761/1761	4,835	446	92.3	67
790/1790	14,880	1,545	103.8	147

So what are some conclusions we can draw from this?

First and foremost, 761 (and the weekend 1761) are absolutely abysmal. This is the current northbound Coast Daylight slot and one hopes that there would be a significant increase in traffic when it is actually extended to San Jose or San Francisco as the Coast Daylight (eventually, one day, quite possibly just a few minutes before the universe dies of heat death). That's not necessarily an unreasonable proposition, 790/1790 is the southbound counterpart and is an above average performer. It's probably a case of leaving Los Angeles too early in the morning without a correspondingly significant destination to arrive at.

Amtrak has been suggesting the past year that the Coast Daylight would be better off running from San Diego to San Jose rather than Los Angeles to San Francisco. At the same time, LOSSAN has been looking at an early morning from San Diego using existing equipment. It seems pretty obvious that 761/1761 should be extended to be an early morning (approximately 5:00 AM) departure from San Diego, picking up commuter traffic and possibly some early morning business and theme park travelers, before continuing on its current low performing route. I honestly don't expect it to pick up too much additional Amtrak traffic, the Surfliner's primary market being leisure travel, though Metrolink monthly pass holders would likely be quite pleased with it, but it's worth the experiment: As it is, with the current Surfliner average yield of 28¢ per passenger-mile, and an estimated $35 per train-mile in marginal operating expenses, 761/1761 currently covers about half of its running costs, possibly less as it is significantly below the average for business class use as well. The first three departures from San Diego are above or close to break even and the first departure, which also heads continues north of Los Angeles, is the best performing of them. If it averages the same as the current 500-series trains (which run only between San Diego and Los Angeles), which is just over break-even under the above assumptions, it would mean an additional 82,900 annual riders and $1.67 million in revenue for the Surfliner.

There's also good reason to believe that continuing to extend the current 500-series trains north of Los Angeles will result in improved ridership and revenue. These full (or "fuller," depending on how you wish to consider San Luis Obispo as part of the Surfliner) length runs are 29% more productive, in terms of passenger-miles per train-mile, than are the 500-series trains, and have average trip lengths 25% longer, something that shouldn't be too surprising since the corridor is nearly doubled by the extension to Santa Barbara. LOSSAN should continue to improve the locally owned portions of the line north of Los Angeles, terminating at Chatsworth with a new layover facility for as many trains as possible if need be, while pushing for improvements by Union Pacific to the Santa Barbara Subdivision.

Lastly, I have a chart created on a bit of a whimsy that I'm not sure actually shows anything terribly significant except that the first and last trains of a day underperform (which may undercut the rationale for a 5:00 AM San Diego departure) and possibly that people want to take a train around meal times. With Los Angeles as the top station for the Surfliner, and being the origin or destination for 21% of passengers, I looked at the productivity (in terms of passenger-miles per train-mile) for trains according to when the train arrived or departed Los Angeles. It would be better, of course, to have the information as to how many passengers are actually on board a train during any given hour of the day, but I'm not sure even Amtrak has that information, at least not without a rather laborious process of collection.